Dow again

dow feb 16 2018

So today we briefly got to 25432 and then the Russian meddling news broke. From there we have an initial 5 waves down followed by an a-b-c flat wave 2. Next should be wave 3 down which after a long weekend brewing over all this stuff, should be pretty fast and furious.

The five wave wave shown in this chart is just wave 5 of wave C of 2.

Time will tell.

Dow intraday update

dow feb 15 2018

This is the best guess for the moment. This should be an a-b-c X a-b-c or a 5-3-5 zigzag wave 2 with a ideal target somewhere around 25300 but higher is certainly possible as this is ,after all , a wave 2. Then we go down again

Dow again

dow feb 14 2018

We had anticipated a deeper wave b in the a-b-c  counter-trend wave two. That it was shallow , probable a triangle, does not matter as its purpose is little more than kill time. The c up probable started this morning  with mini Dow futures down about 240 points. All that quickly changed but we have not done enough. At least another almost 400 points would bring us to the 4th wave of previous degree level. A little higher to a 62% retracement. All this could ,of course, happen in a day or two.

There is an outside possibility that ALL of the action since the low is just a wave a of an a-b-c. This would end up taking a disproportionate amount of time and is therefore not our first choice.

Dow update

dow feb 13 2018 2

Roughly speaking the above picture represents our preferred interpretation. It is an initial 5-wave leg down of about 3200 points. We are presently well into the first rebound which , at 62% would carry this wave 2 to 25300 or so. That is also where a 4th wave of previous degree resides. Obviously this wave 2 could go even higher. It should take the form of an a-b-c but if a wave b it could also resemble a triangle.

Then a second bear leg down should start, a wave C or 3. If equal to the first (in the case where it is a C) that would take us to about roughly 22000. However if it is a wave 3 – the more likely scenario at this juncture -  a 1.62X ratio is sort of a minimum, 5120 points – it would target close to 20000. more or less where the supposed Trump rally started. After that there would still be 4 and 5 to go for a first wave!

The reason why I am inclined to think that this might be THE top is that all the talk is about Bitcoin and weeds. Bitcoin I do not understand and in any event it has already lost 70% or so. Weeds you could buy in Amsterdam, my alma mater, already 50 years ago if you cared to do so – I didn’t by the way-  so I am not sure what the fuss is all about except that the administration in the US may want to keep their beautiful prisons filled. They already have the highest rate of incarceration, two or three times the norm for a civilized democracy – in the world, 70+% of which is drug related, talk about MAGA.

Time will tell.