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Archive for 2009

RIM June 15, a sell

June 15th, 2009

rim-june-15

has either completed an a-b-c after an initial down wave, or jaust the a part. Either way the stock should go down at least $20 or so so it should be sold. Note that the gap on the way down is now closed, and that both the MACD and RSI are decidedly negative.

SNC June 12

June 12th, 2009

snc-june12

Lavalin is a favorite with many analysts, it is also at the receiving end, supposedly) of many of the “shovel-ready” boondoggles that are being force fed to the infrastructure segment of the economy, so what is their not to like.

Well this is a near perfect Elliotte wave structure, a first big leg down (5-waves) followed by an a-b-c pattern back into the proverbial “box”. There is still room to manouvre but not much. 5-waves  never stand alone, so stepping aside might just be a very good idea.

BCE June 12, this will make you a widow or orphan

June 12th, 2009

bcejune12

Just an update on . This is the standard A-B-C, note that often the A and C are vector equal, moreover it is not unusual to have C and A equal and both equal to B, so all three equal. looks like it may just do exactly that, which would put the ultimate low in the order of $16/$17 or so, perhaps even lower. We know that Teachers recently dumped their substantial position and there may be others that are still dissapointed about the deal at $41.75 not going through. To see what it should look like one day , see below as GE has done this.

gejune12

GS, Goldman Sachs (Bank!) June 12 update

June 12th, 2009

gsjune12

Once again, not yet at the original target of $160 but sufficiently high to sell for an almost 300% gain (sorry original predates this blog). The wedge-like shape as well as the deteriorating MACD and RSI warn that it is time to vacate this one and move on if not already done. As a comparison below is which (also predictable) did the exact same thing but did go higher but not on a relative basis. Thereafter it did crash, which is not necessarily what must happen to , evenso it could.

bac-june12

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DW Dundee Wealth, update sell.

June 12th, 2009

dw-june-12-update

I was late to recognize this one, it was around $5.75 and halfway I suggested it might well go above $9. The stock has reached that level and some and eventhough the ultimate target is still much higher I would step aside at this level. We may have completed a 5-wave move up from the second low and both the MACD and the RSI are at very high levels from which they can only fall. Nothing wrong with a 60% profit.

YLO.UN an alternative, June 10

June 11th, 2009

yloun2

The possibility of a triangle is certainly very valid, see blue triangle above. However as it projects to below $4 this may just be too severe for a stock that is already earning 15+% and is generelly targetted to levels around $7 or above. The alternative might be what is shown in purple or pink, a simple a-b-c. Long term that is not good but short-term it allows the stock to rise from these levels sooner than in the other scenario. In both cases we should go to $7.50 or so.

TSE Update June 10

June 11th, 2009

tse-june-10

Somewhere here we could have a big reversal. However the market is extraordinarily persistent so tread carefully. We are not quite in the “box”.

tsejune10-2

TLT Long bond update.

June 11th, 2009

tlt2

Relentlessly this one is going to 85,  at which time it will have lost almost 40 points in a relatively short period of time when the Fed was supposed to be bying the longer maturities. At some point this will feed into the mortgage markets.