This is an art not a science so there is an element of judgement which can only be partially eliminated by doing it often.Â As far as the TSE is concerned I will go with the triangle, typically you then hit a bottom right under he apex and 5 tends to equal 1 so roughly around 7000. The S&P works better without the triangle, just an a-b-c 4th wave, otherwise the conclusions stay about the same.
Looking again at the Canadian banks I have added Commerce to see how it compares to the Royal. The chart is , as usual, open to different interpretations but given a very clear triangle and a fairly clear 3d wave I assume that ether the bottom has been hit already (and we are in a b-wave) or we are one leg short and could still drop to say $38 (this can happen in either scenario). In any case we have done slightly more than 61.8% from the $105 high and given that the next major move is probable a (counter-trend???) rally of perhaps $15 plus the risk/reward equation supports the idea that around here to a few dollars lower might well be a good buy. Here are the charts.