TSE update Jan29

tse jan29

Just a little update.  The triangle. anticipated at least two months ago, is unfolding as expected, which does not guarantee that this will continue as there are alternatives. Anyway, so far so good and should this continue it is plain to see that “something” has to happen before we work ourselves entirely into the corner. There is very little room left. Assuming we are in the e of the a-b-c-d-e triangle sequence and knowing that each individual leg must itself be an a-b-c, my best guess here is that we are in the b of e, allowing one more little rise before the whole edifice starts crumbling. In terms of execution, it should be pointed out that the e-leg is notoriously capricious. Sometimes it goes all the way, in this case 9500. In other cases it stops dead at the line, 9000 more or less, and sometimes it barely registers at all. The next good trade is, and this may seem counter- intuitive, going long by way of the HXUs or some other high octane vehicle. The reason for this is that you only want to do the absolutely sure trades, and  this market is asymmetric in terms of risk/reward the long side is better . No matter how low this market will go, it will return to the apex of the triangle ( see BAC ) as a recent example). So there is a sure trade on the long side, your only risk is waiting too long and missing the boat alltogether.  Also it might not be a bad idea to unload a few long positions just in case.