TXT Textron, April 10, where there is smoke ………

The chart below is on a log-scale which often gives a better “picture” when a stock has made large  moves in fairly short periods of time.

TXT april 10

Textron made a big 48% gain yesterday, supposedly on a take-over bid by Kuwaiti and other Middle–East interests at $21. The stock was $3.57 a few weeks ago. So we missed this one while paying more attention to Bombardier that served our purposes very well. Anyway at this point the real question is, is it too late to get on board? Lets start with the chart. i am not overly happy with the 5-wave count shown (there is a problem with wave 3), but even so a return to $21 (or at least $19) is well within normal expectations (top of triangle wave 4). Similarly the “gap in the middle” theory also points to that same level. (this is log-chart so optics are odd). Of course this company with Bell Helicopters is now very critical not only to US defense but also the Federal Reserve, which if true makes it only more plausible. Cessnas are great flying machines and at a mere $300.000 or so within range for many “middle-class” hobbyists , just stop by Buttonville or Markham airports and see for yourself.

Wait for a pull-back towards the gap, if it occurs  (low $12) and use stops!

By the way, sell , Tellus as it is not working and you are not losing anything. Will revisit that one later.