AGU Agrium,Jan. 21 ,2010 (also POT, MOS etc.)

AGU Jan21, 2010

AGU Jan 21, 2010 2

Agrium has, like Potash and Mosaic, performed outrageously well the last 5 years or so only to go into a very steep dive last year. At this point we do not know if the $115 high 0r the $30 low represents the “true” value if there is such a thing. What we do know is that a hell of a lot of Chinese people were fed more than 5 years ago and are fed today, so I am agnostic about the China factor. Also we know that the stock has rebound to the 50% level, the lower end of the normal range of 50 to 62%. What is also fairly clear at this moment is that the rebound was a very symmetric A-B-C, which though it may yet change, is a dead give away to step aside. A trade below $61 would initially confirm this outlook but rather than using a stop=loss I would simple sell allthree.