HNO and HON, Horizons long natgas/short oil or visa versa

HNO March 26, 2010 HON March 26 , 2010

With the expectation that oil would come off the $88 or so level and natural gas would hardly budge this new product would be a great tool to play the game with a single trade , just make sure you buy the one intended, in this case . I have no idea where oil will go next but after a $20 drop some rebound is not unlikely so I would exit the trade.

Fundamentally the trade  (is this a contradiction in terms?) to do is , of course , to buy the HNO and not the . The reason being is that the shale gas phenomenon has had a disruptive effect on the (always local) price of natural gas. This is not, according to the experts, a sustainable situation, in fact , it may be very short-lived as the shale gas depletion rate is extraordinary high. Oil ,on the other hand , is never priced locally (with a few exceptions like Venezuela, and some of the Arab states) and is destined only to go up if one believes the ex-chief economist with one of our banks. Ergo , over time, HNO should  go up as the ratio between the two energy sources gets back to a more logical thermal equivalent.

For the moment we are out and just keeping an eye on this.