TSE, March 26, 2010

Obviously not a triangle!

TSE March 26 2010 DJIA March 26 2010

The did not follow the expected script, so the triangle is definitely out, also we have now retraced a respectable 50% on the and are overlapping previous downlegs which could mean that the entire thing is over ending a very simple a-b-c down flat correction.However it is not entirely clear how this would fit the bigger picture. Looking at the DOW for comparison purposes this is not yet the case and a variety of bearish scenarios are still valid. One thing is clear and that is that the is more volatile than even the DOW

   It might help to also look at the Canadian dollar (against the US). A few weeks ago everybody and their brother and uncle simple knew that the Can. $ would go up and could reach 1.10 or even 1.20 easily. The obvious part , at the time, was that it was a very crowded trade and therefore did not work, in fact the dollar lost 7+ cents in an equal number of days,  pretty well repeating what it had done a week or so earlier. Here is the chart.

Can Dollar   , March 26, 2010

Notice that this too (for the moment) looks like a simple flat correction a-b-c with a 3-3-5 structure. Again it is a little difficult to fit this in the bigger picture!, so the situation is that we remain bearish but with a little more caution.