TSE VS CITYBANK

tsevsc2

tsevsc

Top chart is that of Citybank or group ,or FNCB for the old folks. The chart covers the period from ‘01 to ‘07 and therefore is not current. This particular period coincides with the peak influence of Sandy Weill and the early stages of Rubin etc.etc. It had occurred to me that the stock was ripe for a  tremendous drop, given the grotesque mismatch of the different parts, the lack of synergies and the rather obvious internally dysfunctional management style.

I believe it was Keynes who once said that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent . It is very stressful when markets do not do what you expect, especially if you feel there are fundamental arguments in favour of your view. But markets are there to suck in as many as possible and usually they do a good job.  Now looking at these charts that have different time-frames , it is clear that from the lows the initial rebound is very strong, in the case of C taking about a year and a half, and in the case of the 8 months. C then stays up there for another 2 1/2 + years without breaking down. Using the same proportions that would equate to roughly 13 months for the . 12 months at least have already passed.

Click on the charts and move them around.  Citybank, of course, drops from $50 to $1 or something like that in the next 3 years, see chart below.

c sept 2010 cvstse3