S&P Nov 2010

Here is a chart of the , the broadest , and for that reason perhaps the most applicable index to use. Everything else has failed in various degrees by charging straight through the 61.8% retracement level, as we have seen, but the question is does that negate the plausibility of another leg down. No, if you use the . (by the way, the 61.8% is not absolute, just a common occurrence.) In his latest Theorist, B Prechter makes a point of noting that the last 6 months have added 7 points- no wonder nobody, bull or bear is enjoying this market – , but however you slice it, closing, intraday or whatever, we are dead on 61.8%. No good counts are available and I have no idea how you would count the move from the May lows, for that matter I am not even sure that the initial drop into those lows was actually 5-waves (to me in a lot of instances the count works better as an a-b-c. What does often work is symmetry and as it happens the A-B-C as drawn above is perfectly symmetric. If that were to continue we would get another leg down (perhaps more than one) into the vicinity of 350. The whole thing might become a flat, perhaps a little distorted but still a flat. As always, time will tell.