RSX (Russia ETF)

rsx1 rsx2

These charts are the same except for the annotations. They are both the Russia ETF and I want to use them simple to check the “plausibility” of my thesis that oil will not go much above $100 and that in fact the high of $103 or so the other day is probable it for the next few months. Anyway, Russia , as we all no doubt know, is the largest oil producer in the world so one would expect some correlation at the very least. On top of that, many of the larger companies in Russia, and certainly those that are in this ETF are energy related! Hence the choice.      As it happens the rise from the low could be counted in two (and many other!) ways. The most elegant of the two, by far, is the one on the left; a simple A-B-C up from the lows into (almost) the normal 62% retracement level. As there is no overlap the move could also be viewed as a 5 wave move.  Interestingly, assuming that at least one of the two is correct, it matters precious little as in both cases we should  go down first .  q.e.d.