Copper (the metal)

copper kitco 5 copper kitco 1y

has the reputation of being well correlated with what is happening in the economy and has been given a honorary PHD for that. I doubt that it is that smart, after all it fell from roughly $4000 to $1000 during the great recession, or 3/4, more than most other things. Also, China did not miss a beat and that is where supposedly so much of the demand is coming from. Anyway, looking at the 5 year chart (Kitco’s the best I could find), the metal is NOT in a bull market as, to date at least, the up move since the lows is too bullish to be a bull market and furthermore it does not have any of the required subdivisions. It is instead most certainly a B-wave, one that is complete already or one that is presently completing a triangle (4th wave, always). Cannot be certain at this point but once the triangle and the thrust from it are complete this metal should drop at least by half if not a lot more.

Here is the triangle in more detail:


C could already be over but as this is usually the most complex leg in the triangle may still need another leg. Then d and e to follow. The thrust should be good for about $50.