FSLR, First Solar Inc.


This chart of First Solar covers only 4 years. From $20 to $320 and then losing 2/3 of that. for the past 2 years it has been consolidating, going nowhere. This looks a lot like a triangle and if it is we will know in a few months. This would favor the downside and indeed most consolidation pattern are resolved in the direction that the stock was moving in before the consolidation started, in this case down.

The fundamentals may even support the down side. As we know, all governments around the world , from Germany to Canada have introduced programs to essentially subsidies these new technologies. In most cases the price they have offered to buy electricity is a multiple of the cost and as a result the programs have been extremely successful. Every second farmer in Ontario has these big , sun facing screens in their fields (cost about $60,000). Very profitable for them if they receive a feed-in rate of 80cts/kwh, when electricity goes for 5/8cts/kwh. Rather than acknowledge the stupidity of these policies, they have simple stopped making the connections. This will dampen demand dramatically in the very near future. These subsidies are not sustainable.

If you are long this stock just keep it but out in a stop at, say , $100. At $165 this one should be shorted again using a buy stop at $180. Good luck.