POT, Potash Corp.

pot b oct 2011 pot s oct 2011

At a p/e of 16 this stock is still overpriced in my opinion. Regression to the mean would suggest something in the vicinity of $20. The EW count would suggest a new low. Looking at AGU and MOS similar conclusions can be drawn. This is just a too crowded trade for my liking and with all the hoepla with the premier of Sak. and national interest concepts against foreign takeovers etc.etc. this stock should move further out of the limelight, usually with the net effect that the stock drops in value.

Looking at the short–term chart , the stock traded above its level for some time so the direction was rather clear. Right now we are sitting on the edge of the sill after a year or more of going sideways. I would not be surprised if , for instance when they report less than stellar results next time (like MOS) this one could gap down leaving behind a nice island. We are , of course out at about the $60 level a long time ago.