NAV, Navistar and PCAR, Paccar (DAF)

NAV 2012NAV s 2012

Navistar’s B-wave from the lows of $15, is either an A, running flat B, C (shown in green), or an A-B-C with the C as a diagonal, wedge (shown in blue and purple). It does not matter which is correct, both are perfectly plausible and the ultimate outcome should be a new low, that is a low below the $15 level.

The drop from the $70+ recent high was pretty rapid and erased about $40 or 60+% of the B-wave. So far at least the stock has been unable to regain much of that and is presently sitting at about $10 off the recent $30 low. This is a little odd as heavy vehicle manufacturing is booming (see also Paccar, PCAR owners of DAF). As with so many other stocks we suspect that a triangle of sorts is forming in this stock. The count is not entirely clear. The triangle could be complete right now but the plausible alternative is that we are only in c of the triangle with d and e yet to come. Either way the upside is limited to $42 or so (just $2 above today’s value. The downside is about $15 judging from the size of the mouth of the triangle, but considering that a new low should be made, it could be substantially more than that. For completeness we have added the PCAR chart below. It does not have a triangle but the count is essentially the same.

PCAR jan 2012