TSX update.

TSX mar 18 2012

The outlook for the TSX as a whole has not changed. The B-wave travelled right up to the upper parallel trend line  and was convincingly repelled (about 3000+ points). Unlike in the DAX or DOW the TSX only rebounded from the recent lows by about 50%, a lot less than the original rebound from the Mar. 2009 lows.

Not everything in Canada is honky-dory. Later this month we will get government budgets presented that will tighten things up a wee bit even in this financial paradise. China looks decidedly more shaky so the commodity play, always the last to blossom, may be coming to an end. Canadian households are now as over indebted as their US counter parts before the housing debacle. We do not have non-recourse mortgages here but interestingly our own Fannie and Freddie has grown by leaps and bounds in the last few years and seems to be near its fill at $600 bln. Houses in certain urban areas are costing more than 10X income, the norm is 2 to 3, no problem? Once America figures out how to use natural gas for transportation purposes (like the Europeans have been doing for at least half a century) , peak-oil may well still be with us but of no practical value. The oil-sands may even be shut-in for a while. The list of possibilities is endless.