IVN, Ivanhoe update

ivn geis

Back in December we warned that could fall out of bed a lot more before regaining its composure, the reason was that the rebound from about $13 to $23 was clearly corrective, implying a new low in the future.

ivn geis2.png

Today we are well on our way to making a new low and then some. My best guess is that we are in a third wave of C (or 5) but the picture is by no means clear. The stock is down  about 50% from the $23 high and about 60+% from the all time high of $30. From a valuation point of view this stock should be a buy, certainly at around $8 to $3, if it manages to get there. Fundamentally, and I do not follow that, there are all sorts of games being played between the company and Rio Tinto, the Mongolian government, and of course China that is or is not in a “soft landing”. The infrastructure for the mine itself is on schedule and production should begin later this year. There are some concerns with regard to water supplies.     Note that the RSI and MACD are already pointing upwards.