BNS update

The expectation                                                   and the reality.

bns june 5 2012 sbns june 12 2012

The triangle is not the most elegant one but  it will do. Need to complete wave e and then a drop to about $49 should occur. There it might be a buy for $3 or $4, a short-term trade. At $49, if it gets there , wave 1 of 3 of C would be complete. If you do the short–term trade be sure to exit in a timely fashion as the next wave down is probable wave 3 of 3 of C which is when things usually get decidedly nasty.

Other possibilities do exist, for instance this 3 month down move could conceivable be a B-wave, to be followed by a C up, before we go straight down. That would add 4/5 months of agony and is certainly not the preferred scenario. A more likely alternative is that we are forming a B-wave triangle in an a-b-c wave 2, as wave 1 is already complete. The stock could then move up to $54 before dropping, this would only take a couple of weeks. For those interested here is a previous example of the same set of choices, this time with and we chose the wrong option;

The expectation                                                  and the reality.

ewg s jan 2012EWG JUNE 12 2012

In the end the EWG is still going down but an opportunity is missed and a lot of time goes by. CAE is another example, see that blog.