CCA, Cogeco Cable Inc. fractals and so on.

cca jul 2012 1cca jul 2012 2

This stock hit a low of $34.45 today, roughly where the trend-line runs. Is this bullish or bearish? That all depends on where you assume the low to have been in the first place. If you put the low in 1995, the pattern, a diagonal triangle or wedge, would be complete and the stock should continue down un till it reaches the base of the pattern. Alternatively, if one assumes the low to be in 2002, an argument could be made that the pattern is not yet complete. Over and above that each leg should consist of 3 sub-waves, not 5. In some cases that is easy enough to see, at other times it is quite debatable. All the above legs look like 3 wave structures but it does not always follow that they are. Another little challenge is that any two waves, each with 3 wave sub-divisions, is itself a 3 wave affaire; consequently you are never certain that the whole structure is complete. These are known as fractals, self-similar structures that repeat at different scales. Philosophically speaking it is like asking how long is the coast line. The answer depends on from what height you are observing it from or, what amounts to the same thing, how much detail you wish to incorporate in the calculation. There is no real answer.

From a trading stand point there is. Over thirteen years the stock has gained about $6, that is less than 50 cents a year. We missed seeing it but obviously it should have been sold at the $55 high. Now that it is down some 40% a rebound of sorts may lift the stock but probable it should be sold soon. A stop-loss below the $34.45 is advisable.