Then (Febr. 29 2011) and now.
So the suggestion on Febr. 29th was to sell this one right away even if it could still go a little higher. It did so 2 days later on the next Monday (it is a leap year!) and dropped to $35.62 , less than a dollar short of the indicated target and more than 20% down.
Where does it go from here? My guess is down once the (red) a-b-c is done, which could still take the stock to, perhaps, $43. But, and this is a big but, there is also potentially a much larger A-B-C (in black) which could take the stock back above $47. This scenario does not jive with the outlook on oil, but nevertheless it remains a possibility. Stay on the side.