RCI.B, Roger Communications

rci.b may 2 2013

Back in Jan.  of 2011 we thought this was a sell. It was for a short while but the call was wrong for the simple reason that wave A is not a 5-wave structure, it is clearly only 3-waves. Flats, including very big ones, follow the 3-3-5 script whereas zig-zags follow the 5-3-5 pattern. Flats, as the word obviously implies, are more or less flat and zig-zags normally are fairly sharply down. After 6 years this is most likely a flat and not a zig-zag. Certainly the normal initial target of the 4th of previous degree, here at about $21 strengthens this view. In tennis this would be called an unforced error, in trading it is called stupid. But, if at first etc.  Here we are again with a delightfully beautiful B-wave, this time to 100% retracement levels instead of just 60, also known as a double top. Time to get out.

Fundamentally the communications companies in Canada enjoy a 3 party oligopoly with very strong regional concentrations. Our CRTC does very little to counteract this. In a manner of speaking these telecoms are better of than the banks and typically charge multiples of what is charged in other countries. Someday technology will catch up and undermine this MO, or perhaps the Canadian population will wake up one day, one can only hope. Without the legal protection these companies would lose a lot of their earnings power. We would therefore be sellers.