AGF.B , AGF Management Ltd. update.

agf.b aug 3 2013agf.b aug 3 2013 s

Some previous blogs were fairly accurate but we forgot to follow up. It seems like the whole investment industry has forgotten this company that was once a role model for the mutual fund industry. Somehow they managed to make themselves irrelevant much faster than their peers. If, repeat IF, our analysis today is anywhere near correct the company will soon be completely irrelevant.

In the big picture we appear to be looking at an A-B-C zig-zag correction from the highs of $40. This is a 5-3-5 structure. Anyway we are in the C part and Cs are always 5 waves. Problem is that we have not made a new low which we should. The other problem is that wave 4 of C already overlaps with wave 1 of C. This is an absolute no-no EXCEPT if we are looking at an expanding diagonal triangle. These occur only in 5th wave positions (or Cs) and are the only pattern that allows overlap, indeed it is normal to have overlap. This last leg may go all the way to the trend line but frequently does not quite get there. A $4 or $3 target would be perfectly compatible with this scenario. Note that both the RSI and MACD are not confirming the recent new highs.  A sell.