DJT update

DJT may 21 2014 arithDJT may 21 2014 log

These two charts are both of the Dow Jones Transportation Average, a.k.a. the rails. It consists of 20 companies in the rail, trucking , air transportation and parcel delivery business. Marine transportation is barely represented. As you can see at first blush, Janet Yellen is perfectly right to claim that there is no bubble or anything remotely indicating that markets might be overvalued. Looking at the arithmetic chart on the left, you can see that the climbed almost 6000 points in the last 5 years. That is 500 points more than its entire one hundred and ten years existence!! Also, on both arithmetic and semi-log scale charts, the is now well above its channel of the past 25 years!! However, long term maybe not;

djt may 21 2014 big

The chart does not go to today but we are presently about where the X is at around 8000. Another 3 to 4000 points up is entirely consistent with the present 110 year old channel. All we will need is a constant flow of fed comments every two days or so for the next two or three years.