SU, Suncor update

su feb 3 2015 bsu feb 3 2015 s

Suncor spent 3 years doing nothing. At its peak this was a $70 stock (with oil at $140/barrel). The move from the lows is most certainly corrective, implying a new low below $20 someday in the future. Looking at the short-term chart, it looks like there were 7 waves into the recent low, one too many. (unless, somehow this is a very ugly diagonal wave c, which would then need a brief new high above the high of 3 years ago – the b simple moves to the right by three years). Therefore we expect a turn soon and the most probable point would be where c=a in the latest bounce. This would be around $41 where the 200 day moving average also resides. Note that by that time the RSI would be overbought.

Logic suggest that the stock is too high. If it trades at $70 when oil is at $140 where should it trade when oil is not expected to exceed $75 for the next few years? $35 maybe? What if oil drops to <$40?