TSX update

TSX feb 13 2015

After looking at the HXD and HXU, it occurred to me that the might – I repeat, might – be peaking at around this level. Again the drop in September is unequivocally a 5 wave downward move, not 3. The bounce following it is without question a 3 wave leg. The next one down, b , is ambiguous. The c that follows should be 5, which might actually be the case if this is a wedge. Put all this together and you have a W1 down followed by a wave 2 retracement. It is a lot of retracement but , provided the peak stays below the 15685 level of Sept. that is fine.

     The bullish alternative would be if the Dec. low was the end of a correction (or alternatively there is actually a triangle that ends in Jan. In those scenarios we would be in wave 3 of 5 that could continue to 16000 or so (see chart below). The RSI and MACD do not support this.

tsx feb 13 2015 b

At this point all this is rather academic considering how far it has already gone, but it will be helpful in determining how fast we go down. If 15685 is not exceeded we will find ourselves in wave 3 down, good for at least 3000 points!