FFH, Fairfax Financial.

We caught the $50 low back in 2003, but otherwise it was mostly hit and miss. Not the sort of thing that you want from this blog. So here then is the perfectly correct prognosis of where is going.

FFH feb 11 2016

First of all, as always, we start with the big picture. Back in the nineties this stock came from nowhere and immediately rose to prominence. Wood Gundy was literally salivating at the mouth when it hit $600, expecting a few hundred more. Well, we got $150 more but it did take 18 years to do. That is a long time of explaining to do for the rookie investment advisors who bought into the hype. The stock quickly dropped to about $50, or down 92%.  It climbs back fairly linearly and oddly the 2008 great recession barely registers as by now the world knows that the top dog at this company is a short seller, making some wonder if this is an insurance company or a hedge fund.

From an EW perspective we cannot determine precisely where we are. However, roughly in the middle there is this near perfect expanding triangle a-b-c-d-e. These gems are always either a B-wave, or a wave 4. In this particular case it matters little which scenario you prefer as the outcome is the same, at least to about $325. As we get closer we will provide more detail. For the moment we can get one more minor push up and then this stock should tank. We would not wait for that. As the saying goes, low tide strands all boats, even the best.

On a completely different note, even if you are not Dutch, this is worth watching/listening to;