OIL, update

oil may 16 2016

This is the light crude future on the CME. Futures change all the time and when going backward, there is a lot of distortion as you are not necessarily looking at the same thing. Still ,even with that caveat it can be a good exercise (see our prescient previous blog).

Now that we are up close to 50% from the lows (of $26, on the then current contract) it is useful to have another look. Could this be an A-B-C correction, or part of a correction? If it is then we have a nice diagonal, C will equal A at about $48/49 and will terminate close to a 4th wave of previous degree. This may just be as good as it gets for a while.

Rumours have it that at the university of Delft (where the blue china comes from) they are working on a prototype engine that will be able to burn water which might have  a disruptive effect on the supply and demand balance. One of the few remaining technical issues is if this only works with Rhine water, or any water. Of course, the city of Rotterdam, the largest fuel transfer station in the world and  not that far away from Delft, is doing all it can to suppress word about this project getting out to the world at large, which is probable why you have not heard this before.