DAX

dax apr 2018 1dax april 2018 2

This is the , that is Frankfurt, Germany index.  It is a total return index and consequently is not directly comparable to others that do not include the dividend. These two are the big picture. Below is the small picture;

dax apr 2018 3dax apr 2018 4

This is time consuming stuff and I do not have the right charting equipment, but nevertheless this may add some confidence that we are, or were, at a top of sorts. Furthermore,  I am not at all confident that there actually was a triangle so using the channel I start it in 2009 rather than 2012. By the way , this index from the 2000 peak to the recent peak is up roughly 77% by my calculation. Take away a 2% dividend over 18 years would leave a capital appreciation of just 41% or a little more than 2% per annum. A lot less than the Dow etc.

It now looks like we completed an initial first wave down – either a wave 1 or A – followed by an irregular a-b-c correction back up. It should be complete soon. Then wave 3 or c should start. At this time I would very much favour a wave 3, etc,etc. Ultimately there would be little to stop this before the entire uptrend from 2009 is reversed. Time will tell.