RUT 2000

rut april 12 2018 brut  april 12 2018 s

The last month or two have, if anything, been most annoying. The degree of ambiguity is stunning and the ultimate resolution is probable still a few weeks away.

What we have here is the Russell 2000, one of the broader indexes in the U.S.  In the left chart the move from about 1000 to 1600 – nice Fibo ratio, by the way – makes it plausible to presume that this is a 5th wave from the lows of March 2009 of roughly 350, see below;

RUT april 12 2018 vb

Then the chart on the left displays, at first blush, what looks a hell of a lot like a triangle. Today we seem to be completing wave d of that triangle. So all that is left is a small e and we could get a thrust up of about 200 points.

All legs within a triangle must be 3-wave affaires. To me it is not perfectly clear that they are. Superficially waves a and c “look” like 5-wave affairs  but there may be a small wave at the top too many. The waves b and c are unequivocally 3-waves. So it is still possible to count this as a series of 1-2s, in which case we will accelerate downward fast.

Given this uncertainty only a fool would hold a long position if you look at the big picture. There is a lot more downside than upside so you will have to be very nimble in an environment where, for all we know, Stormy Daniels may become the next attorney general.