COST, Costco update and option trade.

cost june 19 2018

There can be little doubt that this 5th wave is a “diagonal”. And if it is a diagonal it must be a 5th wave. The high was a couple of working days ago and reached $207+. Diagonals invariable retrace back to their base level which should be in between the two horizontal lines. Typically this move should be swift which, in practice, means in about 1/3 of the time it took to go up, about 18 months, so in about 1/2 year. This $90 drop might sound like a lot but it would only take us back 2 years out of nine. Furthermore the p/e is running above 30. See chart below for the bigger picture;

cost 19 june 2018 b

In my opinion this situation would be played best by way of an option. As an example, a Sept. 2018 put with a strike of $200 sells for about $4. If you want to have more time on your side you can take it to Jan. 2019 where a similar $200 put would go for about $6. You will probable earn a multiple of your money back! with excellent odds as the complete lack of volatility in this stock, see the narrow channel, makes the put options dirt cheap.