ABX update

The usual then, Sept 17 2017, and now charts;

abx sept 23 2017abx  nov 7 2017

In that blog of almost two months ago we suggested that it might be worth waiting for the stock to drop to $18/$17 in order to complete a counter-trend pullback within a large A-B-C correction from the highs. This B leg has now taken more than 16 months  and has retraced more than 50% of the rise from the lows of $8 to about $30. It should be within , roughly, $1 of its ultimate target. Then the A-B-C should resume with a target of about $36. The RSI is oversold and supports the notion that a move up is next.

All of this applies also to the XAU. It’s waves differ slightly but the end result should be similar. It has potential to roughly 140 /150. See that Sept. 17 blog and below;

xau nov 7 2017

This is on a semi-log scale and consequently it looks rather compressed, perhaps also because the XAU is measured in US dollars. It is not the most elegant count by any means but is still plausible and remains compatible with ABX above.

TSX etc. update

tsx 20 october 2017

We had this interpretation in our previous blogs, either a series of 4-5s or, more likely, a diagonal triangle 5th wave.  This is a long chart and therefore does not lend itself for precise predictions but our take on this is that we are about to peak and that a dramatic drop is straight ahead as that is a “diagonal” which invariable retrace their entire advance. In this case that would amount to roughly a 2/3 loss from whatever peak lies ahead.

djia 20 oct 2017

The Dow is going vertical, and if anything, confirms the possibility of a major top.

ABX in C$$ and XAU in US$$, some thoughts

abx sept 23 2017xau sept 23 2017

The time scales are, unfortunately a little different, ABX’s is much longer but you get the point. Just superficially I could come up with a multitude of counts, at least four in these two charts. No idea which one is the best but the one in green seems to have the most followers right now. Most importantly, apart from a slight immediate drop, the next bigger move for all of them is up not down. Playing it from the long side appears to be the way to go. For ABX it might pay to wait for $18,$17 or something like that first.

WJA, Westjet update

The usual then, July 11 of this year, and now charts;

WJA july 11 2017wja sept 19 2017

$27 was the target at that time and that was reached just a few days ago. It looks complete now. Not only is the structure of the rebound a clear a – triangle b – c, that is a corrective move, pretty clear but it also retraces a little more than 62% of the drop AND both the MACD and the RSI have turned down more than a month ago.

If the A-B-C scenario is correct, this stock could reach a level of $12 or so. Time to disembark ?

Air Canada, that was featured in the same blog, went three or four dollars higher than we anticipated which just proves that perfection is elusive.