Cameco is performing in a text-book manner with each and every wiggle conforming to EW rules and guidelines. Here is a refresher. The stock did an A-B-C counter-trend rally after the lows of Oct 2008 at roughly $15. This may only be part of a much bigger correction, we simple do not know. But the stock will have gone down in 5-waves from the $44 high and should therefore rebound perhaps by one half of the drop, about $10 to $11 depending how low we go. Today we are on the big fat line connecting the lows and that may hold were it not that the pattern is not (yet) complete. A minor 4th and 5th wave (of 5 ) still seem to be needed which could take the stock to the $22 level. This is the extreme so it might be smart to buy a little above that. The gap-in-the-middle-theory would suggest $24 as ideal.
The target is at least at $32 which is where the gap starts closing and where there is a triangle wave 4 (of 3), both “normal” targets. Even at today’s price that would be a nice return, assuming this is correct.
CCO
Now that the Japanese reactor has joined Chernoble by having a 7 on the disaster scale it is a good time to review CCO;
There may be a triangle in the wave 4 position, and then perhaps not. Either way we are in the 5th and last wave down which should itself subdivide in 5 smaller waves. My guess would be that the $24/$24.50 would be a good level to buy, but the stock could drop all the way to $22.
CCO
CCO is behaving more or less as expected. Still looking for that missing 5th wave down. We may be in it already or we could be tracing out a triangle that will simple consume a little more time. Nevertheless the target stays the same, $24.50 or maybe a little lower. There is should be a buy.
CCO
The Nasdaq is one tick away from overlapping, the Russell 2000 has already overlapped so the whole idea of a first 5 wave down is in trouble, at least in America. Most of the Eurapeans still have a way to go. Also S gave back one dollar, exactly what it had gained over the last week. Cameco is up $2.5 which is close to 10%, this together with the whole Uranium space , like DML, UUU, UEX etc all up similar amounts.Here is CC0;
I cannot get clear tick charts but even using this blunt chart it still seems to me that a 5th wave is missing even after today’s big gain. There is no news of course from Japan, the focus has shifted to Libya, but in the meantime what is leaking out is not particularly encouraging.
CCO
Cameco’s target remains the same. $22.50 is perfect, but we would raise the $24 (I want to do this trade) level to $24.50, just in case the lower boundary line stops the drop from going that far.
We are now at about the 3 mile island level disaster, a 5 on this scale. Americans are buying iodine pills and the Chinese are hording salt. In Germany they want to shut down their 17 reactors, or at least not refurbish them as planned. The Chinese have put some of their plans of building 20/40 or so new ones on hold. Here in Canada a slight leak from the Bruce station has become front page news. The mood is clearly not favoring this stuff but at the same time no one has a good answer as to where is the energy going to come from. There is no known alternative.
CCO
Looks like wave 3 is complete, wave 4 and 5 still to come. If it reaches $24 remains to be seen, structure is more important than the price target. Will keep an eye on it!
CCO
Where you put your buy order is a matter of how afraid you are of being wrong. “Objectively speaking”, as if such a thing exists, $24 seems to be the more precise number. Suppose you do get filled at that level than you should expect a rebound of ( (44-24)xo.38=7.8) about $7.8 over less than 1/2 year, which happens to be about a return of 78% per annum. If the stock drops another dollar or two (to $22) it will not change the outcome one iota. If the stock does not drop below $25, your return will be zero. Simple a lost opportunity? the question is, is there another train coming by behind this one?
CCO
A few days ago I mentioned that CCO might trade down to $23 if the gap in the middle were to be applied. I cannot get all of this drop on the chart, but the way it works is that you typically get an equal number of waves on both sides of the gap as the gap itself is more often than not wave 3 of 3. Doing that we get something like the above. At $23 the stock should be a buy, if only temporarily. By that time it will have dropped (42-23=19) $19 and should then have a rebound of at least $5 (or 20%). Put your order in now, as if it does get there you will not!
CCO
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