EMP.a (Sobeys) revisited.

emp.a june 13 2013

More than a year and a half ago we thought this stock had hit a high at $65, give or take. The reason was that a very nicely formed wedge had traced itself out into that peak. Turns out that that was not the peak. Probably the wedge had a 4th wave triangle to kill time (more than a year), but otherwise the structure is still a wedge. It should have peaked today.

Inline with the good=bad and vice versa world we live in ,it is perhaps interesting to note that for time immemorial the company stock  doing the take-over would decline and the subject company’s  would rise. This is simple logic that follows from the process that the respective companies go through. Furthermore the main risk is invariable that the deal falls apart, not that it comes together. So arbitrageurs typically go short the target and long the predator. Ltely this is not happening. Now both companies go up. This sort of action defies logic, but usually just for a very short period of time.

EMP.A, Sobeys update

emp.a dec 21 2012

This one was very easy, clear as a bell, except you have to wait more than 3 years before the wedge becomes evident (Aug. 5, 2011). After that it essentially does nothing for another year and a half. Especially if you tried to play this with options ,  time decay would have caused you to lose money. However now might be the time to give it another try. That the stock will drop at least to $35 is a virtual certainty, it is just a matter of time.By the looks of it the stock has traced out a first wave down followed by a (almost?) completed wave 2 rebound. Next should be a wave 3 (or a second wave 1) and things should accelerate to the downside. If at first …..