F, Ford update

f 7 nov 2014

We doubt that Ford will once again go as low as $8 or less (see previous blogs). For one, we heard on BNN that Ford was the only US auto manufacturer that had made it through the great recession because it has a split share structure giving the “family” greater than normal control. Perhaps.

Secondly ,we heard that the Dept. of Motor vehicles and Measurements (DMM) under the very able stewardship of no other than Mrs. Dee Lusion, has taken a page out of the Fed. book and is planning to reduce the length of a US mile by about 20%. This will have the salutary effect of increasing the fuel consumption/mileage of US vehicles by a similar percentage, increasing their demand proportionately. Ford may even contemplate changing the name of the ubiquitous F150 to F120 in recognition of this achievement. Canada is not expected to benefit as it has gone metric a long time ago.

F, Ford update.

The usual then – Sept. 2 – and now charts.

f sept 2 2013f dec 20 2013

It stayed up there for about 3 to 4 months but has just recently started to break done a little. We will stay with our original outlook, which is down to about the $8 level or a little deeper. After that there is a very good chance that the stock will rise further but there is no use in anticipating this right now.

F, Ford update

f sept 2 2013

Ford did precisely as expected a month ago (see that blog), completing the b-wave in a small a-b-c wave 2 and starting its descent. For the moment that is a preliminary conclusion but it definitely looks promising. We are now in the first leg of wave c down which should take at least a year but perhaps a lot more and take the stock back to below $8 and , more likely, in the vicinity of $5 or lower. Such a deep retracement is perfectly normal for a wave 2. Once wave c is complete, having traced out 5 sub waves, Ford will be a buy again. Don’t wait for it!

F, update

f aug 3 2013

In our last blog on Ford , in Oct. of 2012, we recommended F as a buy at about $7.80 (see previous blog).  We missed the boat by a fraction and now we are changing our count. Instead of being in wave 3 up we suspect the stock is still correcting the move up from below $1 to $19. The initial wave down to $8.70 or $8.56 would be wave a. The rise back up , where we are now, would be wave b. Wave c could start any moment and could reach that $7.80 level or even lower this time around. Sell now and see if it breaks down as it should. The RSI and MACD are supporting this outlook.  Given this structure so far, a flat 3-3-5 would make the most sense which argues that the low was at $8.70, not $8.56. For the moment, who cares?