FNV update

fnv july 4 2016

See our blog of exactly a month ago. In our estimation this 5th wave, which is a thrust from a triangle, should be complete at todays high. There is a throw-over, of about $3 already if you look at the action at about 12.30 pm. Similar peaks are forming on , for instance, Fortuna (FVI) , Detour (DGC) and above all Barrick which is now trading a hair shy of $29. See also FNV.WT, the warrants on this stock which are now going vertical.

    All of this is a little odd now that the whole world seems to think that Brexit is just a minor bump in the road, perhaps even a beneficial bump for both the UK and Europe. Perhaps this was just a fraternity prank that went a bit too far, but one that will not have consequences as papa, or his money, will bail out the boys. See Bullingdon club on the internet.

FNV, Franco Nevada update

Then – Feb. 15 2014 – and now charts;

fnv feb 15 2014 sFNV may 28 2014 s

Of all the gold stocks FN is signalling the loudest that a potential disaster  lies ahead. So far this stock is down about $11 in the past three months but more alarmingly there is now overlap which negates possible bullish alternatives. Given the very clear and distinct B wave structure into the double top a new low should be in the cards, as per chart below.

FNV may 28 2014

Our best guess is that we probable started a wave 3 down recently. By the way, this stock’s pattern looks a lot like that of SNC Lavalin.

FNV , Franco Nevada update

fnv feb 15 2014 bfnv feb 15 2014 s

We have made some pretty good calls on this stock despite , usually being too early. We bring it up again because when looking at a number of different gold stocks things start too look pretty positive. Furthermore it is not unreasonable to expect gold to go up as stocks decline, the common factor there being more QE. Franco Nevada is trading in a troublesome way for such a scenario to be correct so some caution is advisable.

Franco is sporting one of the clearest B-waves I have ever seen. Of course it turned out to be much larger and longer in duration than we ever expected but now that it is done (we think) it is a uniquely well articulated B-wave. The problem, of course, is that B-waves are counter-trend corrective moves that are invariable entirely erased and most often even a little more than that. On the balance of probabilities, just to use a legal phrase, this thing should come down like a rock. It follows that tight stop-loss orders should be used against any long gold/gold stock position!

FNV is about to double top. It has retraced more than the other gold stocks. This is partly the result of it being a royalty collecting company rather than an earth moving operation. Many of the idiosyncratic risks are consequently avoided, at least initially.

FNV Franco Nevada, update

The usual then –Oct 6, 2012 – and now charts;

fnv oct 2012FNV aug 18 2013

Then we expected it to fall immediately roughly from $60 to $36 (a 4th wave!). It did and then some. We unfortunately did not follow up on this stock but obviously it was a buy again at $32  after 5 waves down. It has now done an a-b-c clear counter trend bounce covering 6 out of 11 blocks so it is above 50% but below 62%. A sell again on balance.