G, Goldcorp and most other gold miners.

g sept 13 2013

We used ABX but it really does not matter all that much which gold mining stock you chose. Essentially we perfectly caught a plus/minus 40% corrective move, well in advance. Now there remain two possibilities. First this is all there is to it and we will continue to new lows (preferred). Alternatively this is only part of the correction; it could become more complex in which case a “flat” would make the most sense. If so we are now in the B of a larger A-B-C. The B should be done in three waves. It may be complete right here or could go lower yet. Then C (in 5-waves) would take the stock back up to a little above $34. The most time consuming complex correction would be a triangle. Depending on the overall count, this could be viewed as a wave 4 and this initial a-b-c should be seen as the first and largest leg up in the triangle. Fundamentally a triangle here would, I think, reflect the tug of war that is going on at the Fed. with respect to tapering/tampering. Bernanke’s exit will perhaps force his hand, otherwise his successor may signal his own preferences in advance. The chance of getting another academic drenched in Keynesian nonsense who would embrace this same course are nil. The whole thing would end up as per below. 5th wave are often the largest when it comes to commodities so a low at say $18 or so as reflected in the chart may be much too high.

g sept 13 2013 l

There are a few objections that could be offered against this scenario, overlap being one of them and also the top is not the true top, but this is only intended as a road map of sorts.

G, Goldcorp,ELD Eldorado and XAU

g aug 17 2013eld aug 17 2013xau aug 17 2013

What applies to ABX is not unique to that stock even if its problems may be somewhat unique. The entire gold mining complex listens to the same drummer. Judging by the XAU the group is up about 30%  and both the c and a legs are more or less equal. We would step aside here. See all individual blogs. See also FNV which has the largest retracement.

G update

g june 21 2013

Precisely a year ago we suggested $20 as an ultimate target for this stock. We had a different count then (see previous blogs). This is a better count (we think) and also simpler, just an A-B-C  double zig-zag down for a full correction. From $53.79 to $24.58 is 54.3%. It could drop a little further but the C wave looks pretty well complete within, say, a single dollar. This is a buy with the potential of $6/$12 to the upside. Both the RSI and MACD support this.

G 21 JUNE 2013 B

In the big picture (using a slightly different count) we have a huge 5-6 year flat correction that could be (almost) complete at this point.

g 21 june 2013 2

An ideal target would be in the vicinity of $22. Any rebound from there would be correspondingly larger than indicated above.  The big risk here appears to be that of missing the boat entirely.

G, Goldcorp update

g 14 july 2011g jul 2012

The left is then, exactly a year ago, the right is now. The pattern last year was that of a developing contracting diagonal triangle, in English a wedge. Highly reliable and precise and they tell you the whole thing is over, at least for a while as these always occur in 5th wave position. A slight error was made then in assuming that wave 4 was complete. It was not and consequently the wedge is less pointed than first thought. The target was $56 and that is where it went, albeit in a roundabout way.

The way down was a little more difficult which is why , at one point (see prev. blog) it was good to stand aside ( you would have been out or short in any event!) just in case overlap would occur and negate the bearish outlook. No overlap occurred (waves 2 and 4 of 3 may have touched briefly). With that the bearish outlook is back in full force. We should be in 5 of 3 (assuming 4 is complete, which remains to be seen). Then we need at least another 4 and 5. Ultimately $20  (a 4th wave of prev. degree) is certainly not out of the question.