IVN, Ivanhoe update.

ivn july 25 2012

See our 19 previous blogs on this stock. In honour of its new name,  starting August but trading Aug 6, we did this all in turquoise . That has the added benefit that you probable cannot read it all that well and will not notice if this proves to be dead wrong.

We have a few problems with the count shown but are trying our best to get to out ideal target of $7.08. We can get there if we gloss over a few irregularities at the top and assume that we are forming a 4th wave triangle. That would solve the timing problem and get us to the target. Of course chances are that we will not get there at all and turn a lot sooner. If you do want to buy do not forget to put the order in with the correct ticker!

By the way, after a little Googling the name does make some sense. Turquoise, or the gemstone is hydrated hydroxyl phosphate of copper and IVN is, if anything, a copper mine! Also the gemstone is the stone of wisdom and spiritual journeys, and corresponds with the astrological Sagittarius sign. If that does not move you here is another, in depth description;

Turquoise helps to ground the wandering wayward spirit,  while keeping their connection to the infinite open. Many people who have a lot of energy avoid "grounding stones" because they think it will "clip their wings".  But Turquoise will allow that energy path to remain open.  In fact, some Native cultures held the belief that by wearing it the human mind becomes one with the universe. Those seeking a profound healing of the spirit and soul should wear turquoise.

How appropriate for the steppes of Mongolia, I may, for a change, buy some myself.

IVN, soon to be TRQ

Ivanhoe shareholders approved changing the company’s name to Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd. The new name is anticipated to become effective on or about August 1, 2012. The company’s new trading symbol on the Toronto Stock Exchange, the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ Stock Market will be TRQ and is anticipated to take effect on or about August 6, 2012.

"What’s in a name? That which we call a rose
By any other name would smell as sweet."

Romeo and Juliet (II, ii, 1-2)

How you go from a character out one of Sir Walter Scott’s romantic books to Turquoise Hill  Resources is not immediately clear. What is clear, and the tragic ending of Shakespeare’s play makes that rather obvious, is that a name is everything and changing it deliberately expresses a desire to part from the past or to embark on a new future. Arthur Anderson did that when they formed Accenture, stating quite clearly that A new name, meant a new direction. Countries do it when they want to cast off the colonial past, Rhodesia, named after an English scoundrel, changed to Zimbabwe leaving my dogs in limbo. Burma and Ceylon are now Myanmar and Sri Lanka and so on. In short the name and or brand is everything, you only change it if you have to and when you do, change is in the air. We are getting close.

IVN jul 13 2012

Do we need to wait for August 1? That is now the question.

IVN, Ivanhoe update

ivn geisIVN jul 2012

Left is then, Dec 2011, the right is now. The rise from about $13 to $23 gave it all away. It was a little too much for a 4th wave and consequently it was more likely a B wave in the middle of a very large A-B-C, zig-zag correction. The target shown initially was around $8 but is actually a little lower, more like $6+. But it does not have to stop there, the 4th wave of prev. degree is, after all, down at only $2. In detail;

ivn july 12 2012

Our best guess at this point is that the correction is developing in a double zig-zag, a-b-c X a-b-c. The ideal target, all things considered would be approximately $7.08. Time will tell. The count is not infallible and only meant as an approximation (for instance, the first a could be placed much further to the left).

Fundamentally this is a huge mine, with huge ego’s and the ghost of Genghis Kahn riding through it all, anything is possible!

IVN, Ivanhoe update

ivn geis

Back in December we warned that IVN could fall out of bed a lot more before regaining its composure, the reason was that the rebound from about $13 to $23 was clearly corrective, implying a new low in the future.

ivn geis2.png

Today we are well on our way to making a new low and then some. My best guess is that we are in a third wave of C (or 5) but the picture is by no means clear. The stock is down  about 50% from the $23 high and about 60+% from the all time high of $30. From a valuation point of view this stock should be a buy, certainly at around $8 to $3, if it manages to get there. Fundamentally, and I do not follow that, there are all sorts of games being played between the company and Rio Tinto, the Mongolian government, and of course China that is or is not in a “soft landing”. The infrastructure for the mine itself is on schedule and production should begin later this year. There are some concerns with regard to water supplies.     Note that the RSI and MACD are already pointing upwards.