OTC, Open Text

otc jan 28 2015 lotc jan 28 2015 s

Exactly a year ago we thought this stock might be a good sell at about $110. It was immediately cut in half but that was due to a stock split 2 to 1, I think. Here we are up there again and it got wacked today. It looks like the start of something much bigger that should not stop before we are back at $50 (and , of course, more after that). A sell again.

By the way, we are not wed to this count. A 1-2, 1-2 start with two 4-5’s at the top might fit even better. The conclusion is no different.

OTC, Open Text

otc jan 26 2014

This one looked pretty ripe at the $70 level. Here we are $40 to $50 higher, all in just a year and a bit. This is now a sell in our opinion. Friday it traded in the opposite direction to the market, going up about 10%. A number of things contributed to the gain, most importantly the announcement after the close on Thursday of a 2 for 1 stock split. The extra share will be paid as a dividend which is tax efficient for a lot of investors. Feb 7 is the date of record for this event so you have another week or two to figure out if a dividend is preferable to capital gains in your individual case. The stock is trading at a 40x p/e multiple and the RSI is above 80%, but most importantly the stock is climbing vertically. We have no idea what enterprise information management systems are but we suspect that they behave much like that double-dekker plane that falls back into its own exhaust fumes once the momentum is lost. The logical target is about $50, after the split that is $25.

OTC, Open Text.

June 2nd this was a sure sell at $65 . It had taken years to get out of a range and broke out at about $52, than it appeared to have completed either a simple 5 wave rise, or a wedge. This chart shows the wedge;

otc aug 2011

Earnings must have come out or something of that nature..in any case the stock is now down about 18%, half of it today. The immediate target , of course, is $35 0r $27.5, the base of the wedge. The only interesting thing about this stock is that there was a gap on the way up, and one on the way down. This leaves an island behind and chances are very slim, at least in the foreseeable future that you will see those levels again. The break of the trend-line at around $60 provided a good warning.

OTC , Open Text

otc june 2011

Last year, around this time, the stock “triple-topped”, if there is such a thing after thrusting out of a fairly clear triangle. To sell at around $52 made a lot of sense. The stock did drop by about 30% right away. But it regained its momentum  and even exceeded the channel that has confined it for the past 5 years.  Common sense tells us that,  if it wasn’t a sell then , it sure is one now!