RIM hit $12.27, close enough to our target of $12+. This correction could become more complex but in any event it should trade up $4/$5.
This is not intended to be a wave count! $13.25 is about where both legs are equal (not including the first down leg). Mathematically speaking the stock came from a low of $6.10. With a high of $18.25 it must have travelled $12.15. Therefore, as this is the first major pullback after a 5-wave sequence on would expect a drop to about the previous 4th wave and about 50 to 62%. The 4th wave is at about $11 and if we deduct either $6 or $7 from $18.25 we get a range of roughly $11 to $12. On balance a buy at $12+ and for dare devils at around $13 where the trend line is, see below.
We repeat the fractal shown in a blog back in Oct. 2012;
The accompanying calculation was that the stock would trade in the $7 range if it were to drop a proportionate amount and I compared it to buying Apple at $6, a second opportunity so to speak to step to the plate. Now that we have reached $18 where does it go? The Nov. 22nd blog, shown below in both frames, is probable the most accurate in describing the trajectory, so far at least;
If this prediction continues to work, we should soon get a breakdown in a wave B or wave 2, the latter obviously fits the new bull scenario the best. This should take the stock back to about $12/10 ( After that the stock could rise to about $30 which is where the first bump in the chart is on the way down (a 4th wave of sorts). If any of this will actually happen remains to be seen. What definitely supports this scenario are the shorts. Apparently there are now more shorts than at the lows. Canadian exchanges cannot figure out how big the short position is, or prefer to keep us in the dark. However, in the US the shorts are now reported to be at about 137 mln. shares, which at the average daily turnover for the last 200 days of 28 mln. shares, would take 5 full days of trading. This should keep a pretty healthy bid under the stock. An updated chart is shown below.
Jefferies has upgraded its outlook on this stock with a target of $19 (US). The stock is trading at 15.83 (US) and should reach $16 Can. today if not a little more. At these levels you have essentially doubled your money and we would sell. I ultimately this proves to be a 5 wave sequence the stock could go much higher, but should first drop back to $10/$11.