The World and Canada.

ewa 2012ewc 2012ewd 2012

ewg 2012ewh 2012ewi 2012

ewj 2012ewk 2012ewl 2012

ewn 2012ewp 2012ewq 2012

ews 2012ewt 2012ewu 2012

eww 2012ewz 2012spx 2012

djia 2012

These are the various country indices available under the iShare symbol EW.. . For the most part they are logical, EWG is for Germany and EWI is for Italy. There are exceptions as in Brazil which is EWZ. There are 17 shown here together with the S&P and the DOW. Click on them to enlarge and  the country name will be more visible.

All charts have an arbitrary 10-year time-frame. Therefore what you see pertains to that specific time-frame only. For instance, we all know that you haven’t made a dime being in the S&P for the past ten years. That is not true, because ten years ago the S&P was at such a low that you did make money. It is over twelve years that you made nothing.

A number of things are patently clear looking at these charts. For all of them 2003 (the second column) was the low, and nearly all peaked in the 5th column (Brazil being the exception). Most hit the lows in early 2009 (again Brazil is the sole exception). From the lows the vast majority go up in a clear 3-wave A-B-C counter-trend B-wave. Very clear are Switzerland , Germany and Taiwan. Not so clear Spain and Brazil. The S&P and DOW seem to have one leg too many. In the process Sweden and Switzerland “double-top”, give or take. Italy, France and Spain do not even make it to the halfway point. Mexico,  of all places, does best and even manages a knew high (maybe). If it did it is the only one, with Switzerland,to do so! Together with the S&P and the Dow, Mexico actually manages to pretty well stay up there. Little wonder that the Telefonos de Mexico fellow is now the richest man. All these indices are expressed in US dollars as that is the currency the EW.. is quoted in. 20 in one chart becomes unreadable but here are 5 of the main ones;

ew5 2012

Relative to the starting point 10 years ago, the USA, the United Kingdom, Spain  and Germany, despite large variances in the interim, end up more or less in the same spot, that is up 15 to 35%. Up un till the peak Spain , and Canada a close second, were the star performers. Today Canada is all alone up there at 135%. For a long time both countries poured a lot of concrete and we are still doing it! Of course Canada is so well managed that we now can teach the Europeans how to do it. The moral of the story “Pride goes before the fall”. And, diversification is not what it used to be.

P.S. In case this is not clear, B-waves are counter-trend rallies and ergo new lows should be made afterwards. Also the charts can not only be enlarged but also moved so that you can compare any set of two.

The World, still up?

aexworld ftseworld

bvspworld rutworld

daxworld tsxworld

induworld spxworld

stoxworld cacworld

nikkeiworld swissworld

australiaworld milanworld

Above are charts of 14 different indices , Italy, Holland, Switzerland, France , Germany, the DJ, the Russell2000, Brazil, Australia, England, Japan’s Nikkei and the Stoxx50, not in that order. I have deliberately used a different chart setting that is less articulate, more like what you get in the papers. This has the effect of smoothing things out a bit and making it easier to count. The one thing that is immediately clear is that they are all going in the same direction. Furthermore at least 10 out of 14 appear to be 3 wave affaires, not 5. This means that we are either in a wave 4 to be followed by a  new low for 5, or we are not going to get that and we are simple not yet in a bear market.

The Bovespa, (#3) looks much more like an a-b-c completed correction, ready to go to a new high. The Russell2000 (#4) is less pronounced but seems to want to say the same thing. The fellows in Milan are straddling the fence, either up or down is possible from here.

The TSX is fairly unique in this parade in that it can be counted as 5 waves down (see previous, more detailed blogs). But that still may not define a new impulse wave down as the leg up before it is not 5 but 6 waves and consequently the following 5 wave down could simple be a c of a larger irregular a-b-c. Canada with a minority “Harper Government” has been creeping towards a republic as opposed to a parliamentary democracy , and a few sordid little scandals involving doctored papers, 22 year escort girls and a rather dismissive attitude by our own Berlusconi may just be a little too much for the average Canadian, who patently lacks the savoir vivre of his latin counterpart. This government could fall in the coming weeks, which is fine except that there is no real alternative. This could become a game of Russian roulette with not one but three chambers loaded. (Our outlook on the Can$ also suggest a big problem around the corner, see a few blogs ago)

The last few months have revealed so many B waves that I am very much of the opinion that this market is ready to go south in a hurry. But I would just wait a week , perhaps two , to see if by some miracle this market still has an up-leg in it.

The charts may be difficult to read, but by putting your cursor on an individual one it will tell you what it is, by clicking it will enlarge itself)

The World, stylized.

For those not entirely comfortable with EW, here is the World in a stylized format;

world

This is the basis for a serious bear market, waves 4 and 5 are not even shown but the point is that the DOW could end below 1000.  Time will tell.

The World -DAX

I am getting thoroughly irritated by this market. September is typically the worst month in the year, this time you have to go 71 years back to get a better one. Everything takes unbelievable long with very little happening. Also you could still be wearing diapers but as long as you speak with a South African/ Down Under accent you are an immediate guru. In Canada everything is perfect or so we smugly believe, the truth is more that we are a backwater without even knowing it. In any case this is a good time to re-evaluate the bearish case.

There are a number of things one would look for. An a-b-c correction of about 62% (it can be any other number but on average this occurs often). A retracement to the 4th wave of previous degree. An RSI or MACD that is turning over. A full moon if you want to howl with the wolves and an equinox to tell you that winter is coming. We have all of the above for the following markets;

  FTSE2010 SPX2010

NYA2010 COMP2010

CAC2010 AEX2010

rut2010 smi2010

The charts are from the S&P, COMP-Index, TSE, CAC, AEX, Russell2000, NYSE, and the FTSE. What is clear is that ALL of these have traced out nice symmetric A-B-Cs, all are within a few points of the .625 level, all are back at the level of the 4th wave of previous degree and in most cases the C is approximately vector equal with the A. A few could move a tad higher but not much. (Again click on the charts to enlarge or move them around.)

The overwhelming conclusion is that the bear is in all probability waiting around the corner. As mentioned the DAX is the only exception having recently made a new high but that can be explained in different ways.