The time scales are, unfortunately a little different, ABX’s is much longer but you get the point. Just superficially I could come up with a multitude of counts, at least four in these two charts. No idea which one is the best but the one in green seems to have the most followers right now. Most importantly, apart from a slight immediate drop, the next bigger move for all of them is up not down. Playing it from the long side appears to be the way to go. For ABX it might pay to wait for $18,$17 or something like that first.
As usual the then, Dec.23, 2015 and now charts;
Once again we are amazed at how accurate our EW calls often are! Back then it was relatively easy as there was a very clear wedge in stocks like ABX, which after a triangle truly anchors the count perfectly. No such luck this time as the different stocks show different paths to where we are now. Some have clearly completed a correction recently, implying an upmove directly ahead. AEM, FVI, PAA, AU and, perhaps, DGC are good examples. Others such as ABX itself is not.
Roughly speaking we are not sure if the correction of the 5-waves? down from the peak at the start of this year is over or if this is just half of it, or if we are in a real new bull. All we can say at this juncture is that both interpretations call for higher levels immediately ahead. Furthermore there is an event that could trigger a flight to safety (at least according to some) into gold stocks, which is tonight‘s3d debate. If you are not already thoroughly sick of this sordid spectacle you probable will be soon! Also it is not true that what happens in Las Vegas stays in Las Vegas. This time will definitely be different.
This expanding diagonal triangle is picture perfect. The line is at about $8, the retracement should, repeat should, be up to the starting point which is at $23 and all this should happen relatively fast. A buy here or a little lower!
The XAU may also be sporting one of these diagonal expanding wedges;
Alternatively you can add a 1-2 at the top and a 4-5 at the bottom. Here the RSI is lower than it has ever been during the past 5 years.
This weekend all of a sudden you could get 5 year charts from Stockcharts.com. Perhaps this is only a temporary expansion of their free product line but it is welcome in any event. ABX is starting to become extremely annoying as it simple will not show its hand conclusively. It has almost been 1/2 year without either confirming or negating a particular scenario , count or outlook. That is not helpful.
However, on the positive side we have at least the possibility of a completed EW pattern if we make a sharp wedge of wave 5. The $11.67 low would be the low and now it is just a matter of time. Both the RSI and the MACD have improved over time and suggest a decent bull run could be in the cards. Symmetry, a frequent occurrence, would suggest a low just above $12 (see red line); we have already gone a little beyond that. The long and short of it is that we think it is a good buy here once again but we cannot exclude the possibility of a spike down to $9 in the worst case.
Both the XAU and HUI have similar patterns except that they are sporting triangles which makes it more certain. But both start of with a mess which could be a series of 1-2’s so you could expect 4-5’s at the bottom.
The XAU came to within a dollar of our longstanding target. It’s top is earlier than the HUI and it is messy sugesting a series of 1-2’s. The HUI is much cleaner but also seems ton have a wave too much at the top. All should be a buy here given that a 40% retracement – the standard minimum – should outweigh any further drop should it occur.