Hamilton's E-Wave Analysis

IBB, iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF

ibb feb 2014

Top Ten Holdings
  1. Gilead Sciences Inc GILD: 7.83%
  2. Biogen Idec Inc BIIB: 7.80%
  3. Amgen Inc AMGN: 7.57%
  4. Celgene Corporation CELG: 6.82%
  5. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. REGN: 6.39%
  6. Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALXN: 4.63%
  7. Illumina, Inc. ILMN: 4.59%
  8. Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX: 4.13%
  9. Mylan Inc MYL: 3.74%
  10. Incyte Corp Ltd INCY: 2.52%

The top ten account for slightly more than half of all holdings, now near 10 bln. We have no idea how to count this thing, but we do know that you are in a bubble when the slope of the curve is straight up. This is about as close as you can get to the vertical.

The Federal Reserve prides itself in having juiced up the value of stocks and when you combine that with complete ignorance with respect to what you are buying the results are impressive as we have here. But it is all an illusion if you look at  it from a macro perspective. For each seller there must be a buyer so by the time the dust settles all the new wealth will have evaporated. From a micro perspective, that is you, you can make out like a bandit and we suggest you do exactly that by selling now.