Year: 2009

CM and TSE jan 23

Hamilton

This is an art not a science so there is an element of judgement which can only be partially eliminated by doing it often.  As far as the TSE is concerned I will go with the triangle, typically you then hit a bottom right under he apex and 5 tends to equal 1 so roughly around 7000. The S&P works better without the triangle, just an a-b-c 4th wave, otherwise the conclusions stay about the same.

Looking again at the Canadian banks I have added Commerce to see how it compares to the Royal. The chart is , as usual, open to different interpretations but given a very clear triangle and a fairly clear 3d wave I assume that ether the bottom has been hit already (and we are in a b-wave) or we are one leg short and could still drop to say $38 (this can happen in either scenario). In any case we have done slightly more than 61.8% from the $105 high and given that the next major move is probable a (counter-trend???) rally of perhaps $15 plus the risk/reward equation supports the idea that around here to a few dollars lower might well be a good buy. Here are the charts.

Click to Enlarge
Click to Enlarge

RY again, this time in E-wave terms

Hamilton

As much as I try , I find it very difficult to put a reasonable plausible count on this stock. The problem is that there are seemingly a lot of overlaps or 1=2,1-2 type of situations followed by 4-5, 4-5 etc. etc. On the chart below I have tried a compromise that I feel could be it. If correct the stock will bottom anywhere between $29 and $25 as it completes a 5th wave diagonal (as in RIM but less pronounced) No exact point can be determined as the last leg can overshoot or fall short of the model target. In any case, wherever it does go the next move is back up at least to $38, tradeable as it would be about a 30% gain regardless of the price you pay. Looking at RSI and all this other wonderful stuff that techies get excited about this looks pretty attractive. Here are the charts.

Click to Enlarge
Click to Enlarge

BMO’s fertile brain

Hamilton

I was wrong the other day when I mentioned the falling IQs of  bankers as soon as they see  one of their own. Here is the proof. We are all familiar (there are exceptions) with concepts like prime-rate, bank-rate, LIBOR. TIBOR, cost of  funds etc.etc. But did you know that if you juggle them you can have your cake and eat it too? Yes , this time they dropped prime one for one with the Bank of Canada’s 50 beeps but before you get carried away into sentimental admiration, read this. By the way, I cannot figure why the interest is $9.88 a instead of $10 (semi-annual?).bmojan21005

S&P Jan 22 update

Hamilton

As mentioned earlier, the S&P is doing more or less the same thing as the TSE. Two reasonable counts, one with a triangle in the 4th wave position and one with a simple a-b-c 4th wave. Here is the picture once again. If correct the target should be in the vicinity of 700, as measured by the triangle or by assuming 5 will equal 1. Here is the picture, click on it to enlarge.

bmojan212007