GLD, S&P Goldshares ETF update

gld mar 31 2016

The GLD has behaved even more poorly then the XAU, perhaps because it is, I think, an ETF that primarily holds gold itself despite the name. Because the low was pretty well at 100,  we are presently up only 15% or 1.15x. The very distinct triangle suggests that that is a fourth wave so, if anything, this chart confirms the notion that the initial leg down from the top was a 5-wave sequence for a wave A. We are now halfway in the B. Then C goes down to new lows. $137 is a reasonable target for the B wave in this ETF.

See also our previous blogs on this ETF.

Note that this is the largest goldfund in the World at 34 billion today. By comparison, the supposedly depressed price of AAPL stock still gives it a market cap of 550 billion.

GLD update

gld nov 6 2014

If this is indeed a triangle – there are one or two shortcomings – then it measures to a downside target of about $1000, slightly more than a month from now. Of course it is not obliged to do exactly that. The RSI is already looking a bit oversold and the MACD is downright positive. This chart suggests that the next big move, regardless from where it starts, should be up to, at least, the $1375 level. For the inferior goldstocks, that are essentially a leveraged play on the metal, that is a large and tradable move.

gold nov 6 2014

In the big picture we can conjure up all sorts of scenarios, none of which will actually happen. Some believe we are in a 4th wave, to be followed by a 5th. If so the best guess would be that at the coming low of say $1000 , we are completing just the A of a correction that should ultimately take us down the usual 62%. The numbers on this G&M chart are monthly and do not show the actual extremes! If this is a 4th then it should not overlap with wave 1, which had an actual high of $880, very close to the 62% retracement point on this chart. There are numerous variations to this theme (for instance a triangle 4th wave which would promise ridiculously large ups and downs for the next 10-20 years etc. etc.) For FIAT currencies there is only one certain outcome, zero.


abx aug 23 2013gld aug 23 2013

ABX has hit our target of $21.50 ($21.28 so far). As mentioned a few days ago we would sell here. (For the record our targets should always be viewed as minimum targets; we do recognize that much higher levels are possible, often even likely!). ABX has followed the gold ETF GLD quite nicely. It still has a little more potential but $8 on $14.5 (on ABX) is 55%.  For the moment we have no idea where gold or gold stocks will go. But this is an a-b-c and that is a correction so unless it somehow morphs into a 5-wave sequence we will continue with a bearish bias.

GLD, Gold update and K, Kinross

GLD jul 2012

We have seen some very incorrect wave counts that would suggest the GLD is presently in a one year long contracting triangle as opposed to some form of a 1-2,1-2. Assuming, for the sake of argument that this is an acceptable count,  the above labelling would be the most plausible. This would have to be a 4th wave and, given the duration, probable one of high degree. A thrust should follow soon and swiftly take the GLD to just above the old high of 192 or to a new high of 225 or so. An almost immediate return to 150 would follow.

The problem with this count is that it has no counterpart anywhere! Not a single large cap gold miner has a pattern that comes close. Nor does that other precious metal silver which already has retraced 50% from the recent peak. K, Kinross is a good example even if some would cry foul given this stock idiosyncratic problems. Here is the chart;

K jul 2012

No count is ever certain but as more pieces fall in place confidence in the accuracy increases. So this stock drops from $45 to $1 in what has to be a 5-wave move! This is confirmed by the wedge or wedges that are always 5 waves (or Cs). 5-wave moves do not stand alone, there always has to be a second one (as in a flat or zig-zag). In between there is invariable a 3 –wave counter-trend rebound that often retraces 50, 62 or even more % of the preceding drop. There is also a tendency to go to the level of either the 4th wave or the 4th wave of 3. It more or less did all of this! Therefore it is safe to assume that we are in the second 5-wave leg down which should terminate <$1. At about $10 we will get overlap. Should this second 5 wave leg develop as a wedge, that will not matter. In the event that we are actually in a double zig-zag (in blue) overlap at this time would also not matter. Given that this stock is already down some 75% or more, the outlook on GLD shown above is downright impossible, but then impossible things seem to happen more often lately..