Russel 2000 update

rut 21 febr 2021  rut log 21 feb 2021

This is the same chart as the one on IWM a little while ago. The Russell 2000 is displaying an exponential function which, put simple means that you start horizontally and end going vertically, straight up. On a semi-log scale it becomes a straight line in which the angle of attack is a function of the variables relative size on the x and y axis.

We have hit the upper trend line 4 times over the past 40+ years. Each time the index reverses and loses about 1/2 of its value.  This is of course a very crude measure, certainly in terms of timing but it does strongly suggest that exiting this market is the most sensible thing to do. Keep in mind that this index climbed some 1300 points in the recent 9 months. That is a rate of 1700 points roughly in a year. It took an entire lifetime to get to that level before!

I would now sell both Royal Dutch and General Electric. Both have roughly doubled over the past year. They could go higher but this was the “sure” part if there is such a thing.