Can $ dec 2 2016oil dec 2 2016gold dec 2 2016

We have not examined the correlation between the Canadian $, Light Crude Oil  and Gold. However all three are obviously important to Canada or it’s economy and therefore it seems to be a reasonable proposition that the three move in tandem, if not all the time.

     Here we have the futures of all three, starting approximately at the same time and from deeply oversold levels. There then follows a sharp rebound after which there is a retracement of about 50 to 60%. All three qualify as A-B-C but in the case of Light Crude the B may not be over yet as it seems to be forming a triangle. The upshot is that the Can$ could go to about $0.83 to the US, Gold could rise to near $1500 and Oil might make it to the low 60-ties.

     The common element in all three is a lower US dollar. The result of Trumpenomics?

GOLD , update

gold april 29 2016 bgold april 29 2016 s

Gold is doing more or less as expected. However we would have expected a deeper decline around this level before the  second part of this correction. See also ABX. It is not happening which can maybe be explained by market participants who go from hating the stuff to thinking it is the best thing since sliced bread. Perhaps we are going to go straight to our target of $1450 to $1550. Considering that the price of gold really has not changed much for almost 3 months, we assume that this is a triangle B –wave which may or may not be complete. If this were indeed to happen than the correction could be complete by August or September. It seems like an awfully short period relative to the 4 years it took to complete the first down leg, therefore it is possible that this countertrend correction will become more complex and that this will only be a wave A of either another triangle or a flat.

In any event, for the immediate future things look pretty rosy.

Gold, the stuff, and Silver update

Here are the then, December 24, 2015, and now charts as usual;

gold dec 23 2015gold  mar 16 2016

This is the same “diagonal” that ABX displayed. They are very reliable patterns and almost always result in a violent reversal back to the starting point. We view golds trajectory as an initial 5-waves down, then an intermission, where we are now, and then another 5-waves down to complete a big A-B-C correction to, perhaps $250 or so. That may or may not be correct, but for the moment it does not matter as this diagonal should be retraced and we are only halfway. Another $75 down would probable do it. In any event you do not want to miss the opportunity as it is almost guaranteed. Maybe Yellen will surprise us all and put her foot down with another increase.

Silver, by the way, may be doing the same thing;

silver mar 16 2016


gold dec 24 2015silver dec 24 2015

gold fut dec 24 2015xau dec 24 2015

There are a few variations between gold, silver and the XAU (13 major gold miners), but taken overall it looks like we are at a serious low of sorts. This would be the initial 5 waves down for wave A, to be followed by a wave B. After that wave C will take gold down a lot further. In the mean time, if this is correct, there should be a decent bounce in gold of about $400. Silver has the potential to double and the miners could even triple. Gold statistically speaking goes up when interest rates go up and not the other way as seems to be the consensus.