Best count for now.
The usual then, Oct. 21, 2015 and now charts;
This is what we try to achieve in this blog. Provide you with actionable insights into a variety of stocks in order to help you become wealthy. It does not always work, sometimes it is partially correct and sometimes it is dead wrong, but nowhere else can you get such crisp insights. Of course you have to supply your own safety net by way of limiting your losses and letting your gains run.
This was a very good one. At the time we, tongue in cheek, suggested Trump might need some more of this stuff. Here we are just three or more months later and we are clearly on a collision course with Russia and China. In between we may even pulverize North Korea. In any event you are up about 70% in three months, not bad.
If you play bridge you do not normally want to play no trump. You will sort of have to get everything right the first time, particularly the sequence of events, to win. In politics most people seem to want to play no trump this time around, but everything still has to fall in place. Either way you will need more of this stuff. Going higher as per old (previous blog) chart below. $27 for starters.
A few blogs ago we had this as an A-B-C with a 4th wave triangle developing and a target of about $10. That did not work so we upped the target to about $14. That proved to be too high and now we reached $10 ($9.88 to be precise).
With hindsight we are changing our count to an a-b-c X a-b-c, that is a double zig-zag. As is so often the case, the two a-b-c’s are vector equal, which they are at about $10. The only fly in the ointment is that the second c, shown in the detailed chart, should subdivide into a nice 5-wave sequence. It does as shown but not without torturing this c wave. The 5th wave is very long (normal for commodity stocks!), and wave 1 is relatively small. Otherwise the RSI and MACD do support the notion that this stock is a buy.
In any event, fundamentally (and normally we do not give much weight to this factor) it would seem to be appropriate to assume that in the future more nuclear power will be needed, despite the knee-jerk reactions in Germany and Japan. Also in a world that seems to be becoming less civil and more belligerent by the day , perhaps more of this stuff is needed.
In an earlier blog we tentatively suggested that this stock might be a buy at about $14. We just now noticed that it had traded at about $13,45 or so just a few days ago. So we took another look and even though we tweaked the EW count a little bit, it does look as though this may actually be the bottom you are looking for.
The whole descent from $80 or so is a double zig-zag, that is an A-B-C X A-B-C. What you are looking at is the second C that is most likely taking the form of a diagonal (the same construct that we encountered with ABX) which, if correct, should lead to a very violent retracement right back to $27. The red arrows stylize this concept. The RSI is confirming something is up.
The 3 showing the end of wave 3 should be one notch to the left!