OTC, Opentext update

otc mar 7 2016

The rebound has gone a little beyond our guess of $65 and has taken longer than what one would normally expect at seven months. Nevertheless the outlook remains the same. Any moment now we should dive down again by about $30 but probable a lot more than that. So you have $5 to the upside and $30 to the downside and both the RSI and MACD have turned decidedly bearish. A short perhaps?

OTC, Open Text update

otc jan 28 2015 lotc feb 7 2016

On the left, we called for a top just about a year ago at $78, give or take. It immediately plunged about $30 or almost 40%. Then we looked for a rebound to about $65, it went a little higher (see all blogs). Here we are having completed either waves 1 and 2 or A and B. Next is 3 etc. or C.  The 4th wave of previous degree is around $25. You just cannot take the chance! Here is the rebound illustrated to save you time, this was as of Sept 2015.

otc sept 15 2015 l

OTC, Open Text update

otc sept 15 2015 lotc sept 15 2015 s

Open Text has followed our script rather precisely, please see previous blogs. We have a nice initial 5-waves down and have nearly completed the first retracement. This may go as high as $65 but we would certainly not wait un till the last moment, in fact we really would not wait at all! From here, or a little higher, we expect wave 3 ( or C) to start and drop towards the wave 4 level of previous degree, that is to about $25. That could be all there is if this is an A-B-C zig-zag correction. However it could also be just part of an initial 5-waves down for a much larger A.  In practical terms you do not want to stick around for a $40 drop.

OTC, Opentext update

The usual then, Jan. 2015, and now charts;

otc jan 28 2015 sOTC may 21 2015

Here again we had a wedge, possible also a thrust from a triangle. It looked like the top was in already in January but that , with the benefit of hindsight, was clearly wrong which often happens with these wedges as they should contain 3-wave legs but any two of those is itself also a 3-wave leg. In any event the harm was minimal as the stock only went a dollar or two higher. It would have allowed for a better exit. We still fully expect the stock to reach about $50, the base of the wedge (and the low of the triangle). Then after a solid rebound of $10+ another leg down should start. Wait for the rebound to sell if you have not done so. For those so inclined it should be a tradable bounce.