IWM, Russell 2000 index

iwm dec 2020

This chart is from yesterday, December 10, 2020.

This chart is pretty clear to me, particularly the very distinct b-wave in 2019. It is part of a larger corrective structure which makes the covid related drop a 4th wave. Sometimes it is hard to embrace the logic but obviously all the stimulus that was put in place immediately, in amounts unheard of ever before, including arm twisting at the fed as well as all kinds of regulatory and fiscal policy changes etc. etc led to a very positive climate for some, mostly large, corporate assets. As 10 people own 1/2 of all stocks there never really was that much pressure to sell, so against expectations we actually got a very sharp V-shaped recovery. Just as counter-intuitive all that was, the coming years may prove equally counter intuitive. Vaccine or not, it is time to pay the piper. Expect the market to drop precipitously.