VRX update

vrx 22 aug 2016

You should have been able to buy this stock at $27 or less. Today it hit $40.41, exceeding our first target of $40 as mentioned in the previous blog. That is a return of more than 50% in slightly more than a month. Don’t forget that during this time there were a number of guru’s, including the Globe and Mail that professed to know that this stock was destined to go to zero, more or less in the same way Nortel once did. That prophecy may still come true but not before a rebound – which we may now have. However we do expect higher levels yet, to, say, $50 or so as that seems to be a 4th wave of sorts. If you want to participate in that potential outcome, and double your money, is entirely up to you or your risk tolerance.

   The human brain is built in such a way that it expects the past in the future, therefore we tend to extrapolate in a linear fashion. Most of the time this is a good thing. At or near turning points it is definitely not. EW as a methodology recognizes this and does the opposite, that is call turning points but at the risk of getting it wrong and not being in good company like that preeminent business paper, the Globe and Mail. We prefer it that way.

VRX, update

vrxaug 9 2016

We recommended buying this stock on the 23d of June when it was at about $27. Tentatively! It dropped almost to $24 so there were opportunities galore to buy it a little cheaper. Our outlook then was for this stock to go to , at least, $50, that is where the 4th wave of previous degree seems to be and a normal target fro either a bounce or an initial move in a new bull.

The average for 11 “analysts” is, by the way Us$37.5 which, once converted, is about $50 as well. At $40 you will have a gain of about 50%, not bad for a few weeks. $50 is definitely within reach. Considering that this stock peaked at around $350 a “conservative” target for a b-wave in a very large correction, would be around $151. The choice is yours.

VRX update

vrx june 23 2016

Valeant has now dropped from $350 to $27, or slightly more than 92%. This is normally enough, at least for a little while, to create bottom fishing interest. At this point one could argue that the correction could be complete as C now equals A and then some. Even so the low, to make a full circle, is more in the order of $9 or so.

The Globe and Mail recently came out with an article comparing this company with Nortel. When things get that far it is often time to be a little contrarian and we would suggest starting to nibble at this stock. The fourth wave of previous degree  starts at about $50 and it would not be surprising to see this stock move up to that level, which essentially would imply a doubling of your money. Much higher levels are, of course, possible but we would put in the sell order after each buy as things may not allow the time to think.

VRX update

vrx may 11 2016

See our earlier blog. We were expecting at least another 4-5 before this party would be over. We are getting that. A little further – watch the RSI – and this stock might be reaching a major low. It should reach  below $32.35 to make a new low.  Our guess is that with Papa running the place and Ackman on the board a little revival should be in the cards soon. Where exactly we do not know but it should be something like $30 or so. The MACD is already not responding to the latest drops in the stock.